July 27th is the deadline day for all local authorities to submit their annual School Capacity. And it is then that the school places attribution process starts. Survey: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/805804/School_capacity_survey_guidance_2019.pdf
Planning Area capacities, in conjunction with forecasts of growth in school rolls for all local authority schools and academies, inform the Department for Education’s Basic Need capital allocation.
Whilst a dampening of birth rates has become a feature of many areas, this is being countered by the localised impact of the growth in new homes, driven by the government’s challenging delivery targets. Taking into account those factors makes it even more challenging to carry out school place forecasting. However, taking into account these factors will allow us to develop a nationwide model.
For those new homes with a high probability of development, pupil yield and migration estimates are an essential component of the SCAP and associated Housing Developer Contributions. These will definitely need to be factored into our data analysis in order to make it as accurate as possible.
A robust methodology underpinned by best quality data and assumptions is critical to the planning process when it comes to forecasting school places. Getting it right matters more than ever, and that is where our demographic analysis comes in.