POPGROUP

What is POPGROUP?

POPGROUP is a suite of demographic software developed to generate population, household, labour force and other derived projections for specified geographical areas and/or population groups. Forecasts can be made using a variety of data inputs and assumptions. Current populations can be estimated and future populations forecast, with detailed age and sex composition.

POPGROUP provides the UK standard for local area demographic analysis and forecasting, complementing the approaches used by the UK statistical agencies, the Office for National Statistics (ONS): the National Records of Scotland (NRS), the Welsh Government (WG) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

POPGROUP is used by analysts and planners in both the public and private sectors, and in academia for research and teaching purposes.

History of POPGROUP

POPGROUP was originally developed as a collaborative initiative in 1990s, sponsored by a small number of UK local authorities. Professor Ludi Simpson led the design and development of the original POPGROUP suite. The product suite has continued to develop since its inception.

In 2010, the ownership of and responsibility for the administrative management and development of the POPGROUP suite of products was transferred to the Local Government Association (LGA), in collaboration with a POPGROUP Steering Group. Edge Analytics was commissioned to provide technical and sales support to this new arrangement.

From 1st January 2015, Edge Analytics is responsible for managing, developing and distributing POPGROUP products under licence from the LGA/Improvement and Development Agency (IDeA), which continue to own the software.

POPGROUP Product Suite

Core Software

POPGROUP provides a suite of products for demographic analysis, forecasting and planning.

The POPGROUP suite consists of series of linked Microsoft Excel-based models, the key components of which are the POPGROUP model and the Derived Forecast model:

• The main POPGROUP model provides a ‘cohort component model’ (the methodology used by the UK national statistical agencies) that enables the development of population forecasts based on births, deaths and migration inputs and assumptions.
• The Derived Forecast model allows forecasts of any variable that is closely related to the age-sex structure of a population to be produced, such as household structure, economic activity and disability.

The two models are independent of each other, but are designed to work together to, for example, examine the population-growth implications of a defined jobs-growth or housing-growth trajectory.

For further guidance on the hardware and software requirements please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

Data Modules

A number of Data Modules are available for use within the POPGROUP and Derived Forecast models. These can be used to replicate official projections for population and households in the UK and provide the basis for the development of a range of alternative scenarios.

Current Data Modules that are available include:

• Functionality to add historical estimates of births, deaths and migration from ONS to users’ projection files
• The latest sub-national population projections from ONS, NRS and WG
• The latest sub-national household projections from the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), NRS and WG
• Illness and disability projections based upon 2001 Census statistics.
• Labour force projections.

During 2016, new Data Modules will be released to update population estimates and projections.

For further guidance on the hardware and software requirements please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

Guidance & Support

All POPGROUP software and Data Modules are accompanied by user guides, reference material and additional guidance notes.

Comprehensive reference manuals accompany the core POPGROUP and Derived Forecast models, providing guidance on installation, set-up, functionality and applications of the software.

Each POPGROUP and Derived Forecast Data Module is accompanied by its own user manual to facilitate installation and use of the product with POPGROUP.

Additional user guides provide further guidance on the appropriate application of POPGROUP to evaluate different types of scenario: trend projections; dwelling-led forecasts; and forecasts linked to economic change.

For further guidance on the hardware and software requirements please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

POPGROUP Functionality

Using POPGROUP, forecasts can be made using a variety of data inputs and assumptions. Current populations can be estimated and future populations forecast, with detailed age and sex composition.

The POPGROUP cohort component model enables the development of population forecasts based on fertility, mortality and migration data inputs and assumptions; domestic and international migration can be modelled separately, either as rates or flows.

The Derived Forecast model allows population forecasts to be converted into household numbers or to any other variable that is directly linked to the age-sex profile of the population.

POPGROUP uses Microsoft Excel workbooks to manage the data inputs and outputs and provides flexibility to enable users to experiment and analyse alternative forecasts. Data extraction and chart routines provide users with easy access to both broad and detailed summary statistics.

POPGROUP can be used to produce high-quality, defensible population statistics for use in strategic planning, service planning and policy development.

POPGROUP is used extensively by local authorities and local and regional organisations, providing a desktop utility for the evaluation of alternative growth scenarios to support local planning.

Hardware & Software Requirements

POPGROUP is supported for operation on versions of Microsoft Excel from 2003 to 2016 and versions of Windows from XP onwards.

For further guidance on the hardware and software requirements please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

POPGROUP Technical Support & Training

In addition to maintaining the POPGROUP software, Edge Analytics provides technical support to POPGROUP users. Any queries relating to technical issues and software functionality should be directed to popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk.

Training courses are provided for POPGROUP users twice a year, usually taking place in May/June (Manchester) and October /November (Leeds).

For further information, please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

Software Updates

The POPGROUP software suite is subject to occasional upgrades to accommodate minor amendments and enhancements. All users will be informed as and when new software releases are made available.

If you wish to access the most recent software update or check on the update status of your POPGROUP software, please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

Reference Manuals & User Guides

The latest reference manuals and user guides for POPGROUP and the Derived Forecast model can be downloaded here:

POPGROUP v.4.1 Reference Manual
DF Reference Manual

The ‘How to…’ guides are designed to assist both new and experienced POPGROUP users, with step-by-step instructions on how to configure, run and analyse a range of scenarios:

1 – How to get started with population projections
2 – How to get started with household projections
3 – How to get started with labour force projections
4 – How to create population projections led by a plan for housing
5 – How to create population projections led by an economic plan for jobs
6 – How to integrate population, housing and labour force projections

Other supporting documents can be downloaded here:

POPGROUP Data Sources Guide
POPGROUP Data Modules Methodology
Sub-Council Area Population Projections User Guide

Purchase POPGROUP

POPGROUP is available for use by analysts and planners in both the public and private sectors and in academia for research and teaching purposes.

For further information on purchasing POPGROUP, please contact popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk or call Edge Analytics on 0113 819 5087.

For POPGROUP Information & Guidance

What is POPGROUP?

POPGROUP is a suite of demographic software developed to generate population, household, labour force and other derived projections for specified geographical areas and/or population groups. Forecasts can be made using a variety of data inputs and assumptions. Current populations can be estimated and future populations forecast, with detailed age and sex composition.

POPGROUP provides the UK standard for local area demographic analysis and forecasting, complementing the approaches used by the UK statistical agencies, the Office for National Statistics (ONS): the National Records of Scotland (NRS), the Welsh Government (WG) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

POPGROUP is used by analysts and planners in both the public and private sectors, and in academia for research and teaching purposes.

History of POPGROUP

POPGROUP was originally developed as a collaborative initiative in 1990s, sponsored by a small number of UK local authorities. Professor Ludi Simpson led the design and development of the original POPGROUP suite. The product suite has continued to develop since its inception.

In 2010, the ownership of and responsibility for the administrative management and development of the POPGROUP suite of products was transferred to the Local Government Association (LGA), in collaboration with a POPGROUP Steering Group. Edge Analytics was commissioned to provide technical and sales support to this new arrangement.

From 1st January 2015, Edge Analytics is responsible for managing, developing and distributing POPGROUP products under licence from the LGA/Improvement and Development Agency (IDeA), which continue to own the software.