Each local authority in England is responsible for its own school forecasting. This is done by using similar demographic data,…
Hertfordshire County Council is a user of Edge Analytics’ edge-ucate school place planning software, which provides a comprehensive forecasting and reporting capability for mainstream schools and education planning areas in Hertfordshire.
A key component of the edge-ucate model is pre-school population data, which Hertfordshire County council draws from GP registrations statistics, provided from National Health Service data management systems
With a strong possibility that GP registrations statistics may no longer be available in the form that they have routinely been provided, Hertfordshire County Council sought guidance on the use of population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as an alternative source of this crucial information.
Edge Analytics conducted a detailed comparison of GP and ONS pre-school population data for education planning areas in Hertfordshire.
In addition, Edge Analytics used the alternative datasets to calibrate two versions of the edge-ucate model: edge-ucate-GP and edge-ucate-ONS. Forecasts from the alternative models were compared to understand the implications of replacing GP registrations statistics with ONS population estimates.
A report was provided to Hertfordshire County Council, detailing Edge Analytics’ findings and recommendations. The report was accompanied by a data workbook, comparing the alternative preschool population data and edge-ucate model forecasts.