Each local authority in England is responsible for its own school forecasting. This is done by using similar demographic data,…
The Greater Manchester (GM) School Place Planning Group has ten core members, plus additional ‘associate’ members; meeting on a regular basis to discuss and review school planning issues affecting their respective areas.
The Group identified a requirement for a review of current and forecast statistics on school places and pupil numbers, highlighting specific cross-border ‘pressure-points’ by school planning area.
Edge Analytics used statistics drawn from official demographic sources and from the GM Group’s school census returns to identify the demographic pressures faced by the authorities.
Published admission numbers and school capacity collection data for Reception and Year 7 intake were used to illustrate primary and secondary ‘hot spots’ across Greater Manchester.
To accompany the analysis, Edge Analytics conducted a review of the pupil forecasting methodologies used by each authority, highlighting differences that created challenges when considering pupil growth across the region as a whole.
As part of this review, Edge Analytics identified a need for further scrutiny of the commonality of data inputs and assumptions used to estimate pupil yield from new dwellings, particularly given the emerging plans for substantial new housing development across Greater Manchester.