In light of the developing Coronavirus situation, we have put in place a new IT infrastructure that enables us to…
What is Demographic Forecasting?
Demographic forecasting allows us to analyse how populations evolve as a result of variations in fertility, mortality and migration. However, external factors might influence these factors. Population forecasting models use recent evidence on births, deaths and migrant flows to produce robust estimates of the makeup of future populations. We base these on the likely combined impact of natural change (births and deaths) and net migration.
Why is Demographic Forecasting so important?
Demographic change is a key issue for the 21st century. The changing size and profile of populations is a matter of much concern for policymakers, business and society generally. A sustained period of new housing growth, ageing population profiles, increasing diversity and changing average household size are key considerations for planners and policymakers.
Our demographic forecast uses modelling methods to evaluate alternative population outcomes. This is called population forecasting. Alternative population outcomes are the result of both demographic trends and policy initiatives which should underpin all national, regional and local decision-making. Our demographic forecasting models operate on any type of macro or micro-geography and for unlimited forecast horizons.
POPGROUP is a suite of demographic data analysis software that generates population, household, labour force and other derived projections for specified geographical areas and/or population forecasting groups.
The POPGROUP suite makes forecasts using a variety of data inputs and assumptions. For example, the software estimates population growth with a detailed age and sex distribution.
POPGROUP demographic data analysis software is available for use by analysts and planners in both the public and private sectors as well as in academia for teaching and research purposes. Edge Analytics provides technical support to POPGROUP users.
VICUS is Edge Analytics’ micro-location demographic forecasting model. It provides detailed information on future housing growth is used to inform scenarios of population forecasting and household growth. The data generated then provides different trends and scenarios. Housing growth plans typically provide most geographical detail over a 5–15-year horizon, with less certainty thereafter. However, more aggregate housing growth targets typically exist for a longer 15 or 20-year outlook.
The detailed information on future housing growth is used to inform scenarios of population forecasting and household growth. The data is then used for comparison with trend scenarios. Housing growth plans typically provide most geographical detail over a 5–15-year horizon, with less certainty thereafter. However, more aggregate housing growth targets typically exist for a longer 15 or 20-year outlook.
VICUS technology accommodates these differences in scale and timing, combining local authority and micro-location statistics. The data provides both a top-down and bottom-up perspective on future demographic change.
VICUS is of particular relevance to the energy and water industries, where the micro-location of new development and its impact upon population distribution are key to the strategic development of asset infrastructure to meet consumer demand.