Demographic Forecasting

What is Demographic Forecasting?

Populations evolve as a result of variations in fertility, mortality and migration, which in turn may be influenced by many external factors. Population projection models use recent evidence on births, deaths and migrant flows to produce robust estimates of the makeup of future populations based on the likely combined impact of natural change (births and deaths) and net migration.

Why is Demographic Forecasting so important?

Demographic change is a key issue for the 21st century. The changing size and profile of populations is a matter of much concern for policy makers, business and society generally. A sustained period of new housing growth, ageing population profiles, increasing diversity and a changing average household size are key considerations for planners and policy makers.

Scenario Planning, using modelling methods to evaluate alternative population outcomes that result from both demographic trends and policy initiatives should underpin all national, regional and local decision-making. Our demographic forecasting models operate on any type of macro or micro-geography and for unlimited forecast horizons.

POPGROUP

POPGROUP is a suite of demographic software developed to generate population, household, labour force and other derived projections for specified geographical areas and/or population groups.

Using POPGROUP, forecasts can be made using a variety of data inputs and assumptions, current populations can be estimated and future populations forecast, with detailed age and sex composition.

POPGROUP is available for use by analysts and planners in both the public and private sectors and in academia for research and teaching purposes. Edge Analytics provides technical support to POPGROUP users

VICUS

VICUS is Edge Analytics’ micro-location demographic forecasting model. With VICUS, detailed information on future housing growth is used to inform scenarios of population and household growth, for comparison with trend scenarios. Housing growth plans typically provide most geographical detail over a 5–15-year horizon, with less certainty thereafter, although more aggregate housing growth targets typically exist for a longer 15 or 20-year outlook.

VICUS technology accommodates these differences in scale and timing, combining local authority and micro-location statistics to provide both a top-down and bottom-up perspective on future demographic change.

VICUS is of particular relevance to the energy and water industries, where the micro location of new development and its impact upon population distribution are key to the strategic development of asset infrastructure to meet consumer demand.