Case Studies

Craven District Council - Sub District Areas

Requirement

In early 2016, Craven District Council commissioned Edge Analytics to provide a range of alternative demographic scenario forecasts to inform the Local Plan review.

Since the previous demographic analysis was produced, many new datasets were published. In May 2016, the ONS 2014- based SNPP was released, followed by the 2014-based DCLG household projections in July 2016. Also available were additional mid-year population statistics (2014 and 2015), providing an update of the new historical time frame from which to draw new trend-based assumptions.

Following a consideration of the emerging Local Plan, the Council requested an update to the scenario evidence produced for its four sub-district geographies, using the latest demographic data available.

Solution

Edge Analytics used¬†POPGROUP¬†software and the Derived Forecast model to enable forecasts to be developed or population, households, labour force and jobs. These forecasts then incorporated the latest demographic evidence including mid-year population estimates to 2015; 2014 SNPP from ONS and DCLG’s 2014-based household projection model assumptions.

Edge Analytics produced several alternative scenario projections including the 2012 and 2014 SNPP based forecasts, and revised five and ten-year projections, making use of the latest mid-year population estimates. Natural change and employment-led scenarios were also produced.

In regards of household forecasting, Edge Analytics looked at data and assumptions to be drawn directly from the 2014-based household model from DCLG, with forecasts compared directly to those based upon the 2012-based model for all sub district areas.